降息，这5国集体宣布

Core Viewpoint - A new wave of interest rate cuts is emerging globally following the Federal Reserve's decision to lower rates by 25 basis points, with several central banks in the Middle East and Canada also announcing similar cuts [1][3][5]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but there is significant uncertainty regarding future rate cuts, particularly for December [1][9]. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that there are notable divisions among officials regarding the December meeting, suggesting that another rate cut is not guaranteed [1][9]. Global Central Bank Responses - Following the Fed's decision, the central banks of the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia have all announced a 25 basis point reduction in their benchmark rates [3][4][5]. - The Bank of Canada also reduced its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, marking the second consecutive meeting with a rate cut, as the Canadian economy faced challenges due to U.S. tariffs [5]. Economic Context - The Canadian economy contracted by 1.6% in the second quarter, raising concerns about the potential for continued economic difficulties in the third quarter [5]. - The Bank of Canada highlighted that the economy is undergoing a difficult transition, with trade conflicts causing structural damage that limits the effectiveness of monetary policy [5][6]. Market Expectations - As of October 30, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December has decreased to 67.8%, with a 32.2% chance of maintaining the current rate [1][10]. - Prior to Powell's comments, the probability of a December rate cut was as high as 95.3%, indicating a significant shift in market expectations [10]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the Fed's future monetary policy path is fraught with uncertainty, particularly in light of missing economic data and internal divisions among officials [9][10]. - Some experts believe that the outlook for a December rate cut is more nuanced than the market currently perceives, citing strong consumer spending and economic growth as potential reasons to slow the pace of rate cuts [11].