Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00% and announced the end of balance sheet reduction, responding to economic constraints due to the ongoing government shutdown [1][2][4] Economic Impact of Government Shutdown - The government shutdown has lasted nearly a month, leading to a temporary interruption of fiscal spending and a reduction in labor income, which compresses consumer spending [3][4] - Historical data indicates a positive non-linear relationship between the duration of government shutdowns and economic losses, with longer shutdowns resulting in more permanent losses [5][6] Monetary Policy Adjustments - The Fed is expected to accelerate easing measures in both time series and rule dimensions, moving from a cautious stance to a more aggressive adjustment phase [7][8] - The Fed's decision to lower rates aligns with market expectations and reflects a proactive response to current economic constraints [4][8] Future Rate Projections - It is anticipated that the Fed will lower rates by an additional 75 basis points in 2025 and potentially by 50-75 basis points in 2026, aiming for a more neutral federal funds rate [2][9]
新财观 | 主动应对现实约束 美联储加速降息进行时
Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-10-30 05:20