【环球财经】美联储的“下一步”不确定性加剧，市场“宽松交易”受挫

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%–4.00%, but Chairman Powell's comments indicate that a rate cut in December is not guaranteed [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - Powell's statement during the press conference highlighted that a rate cut in December is not a certainty, reflecting internal divisions within the Fed regarding future rate paths [2][3]. - Market expectations for a December rate cut have decreased significantly, with implied probabilities dropping from over 90% to below 70% following the FOMC meeting [1][3]. - The upcoming non-farm payroll reports will be crucial in determining the Fed's decision on rates, as continued weakness in employment data could bolster expectations for a December cut [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Conditions - The labor market is showing signs of slowing down, but has not deteriorated significantly, suggesting that further rate cuts may depend on worsening employment conditions [4][5]. - Inflation remains above the Fed's target, complicating the monetary policy landscape, as tariffs have not had the expected strong impact on prices [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that the Fed's monetary policy stance is shifting from tightening to neutral, indicating limited room for further rate cuts in the near term [4][5]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The uncertainty surrounding the Fed's future rate path has led to a cooling of market expectations for a December rate cut, impacting various asset classes [8]. - Following Powell's remarks, U.S. stock indices experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones falling by 0.16% and the Nasdaq gaining 0.55% [8]. - Analysts believe that while short-term adjustments may occur, the long-term outlook for rate cuts in 2026 remains rational, suggesting limited impact on markets once short-term expectations stabilize [8]. Group 4: Fed Independence and Future Leadership - The independence of the Fed and the selection of a new chairperson will be significant factors influencing the rate path in 2026, potentially increasing policy uncertainty [6][7]. - The nomination process for the new Fed chair is expected to begin in early 2026, with current chair Powell's term ending in May 2026 [6][7]. - If the Fed's independence is compromised, it could affect not only interest rate decisions but also other monetary policy tools and financial stability mechanisms [6].