美豆出口前景持乐观态度 短期豆粕盘面表现偏强

News Summary Core Viewpoint - Analysts expect U.S. soybean meal export net sales for the 2025/26 marketing year to range between 50,000 to 500,000 tons by the week ending October 23, 2025 [1] Group 1: Market Data - On October 29, the total soybean meal transaction volume at major oil mills nationwide was 53,500 tons, a decrease of 59,900 tons from the previous trading day, with spot transactions also at 53,500 tons [1] - As of October 26, the EU's soybean meal import volume reached 5.68 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6% [1] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Guodu Futures notes that the soybean import volume from May to September this year exceeded historical levels, leading to high domestic soybean inventory, which is pressuring spot prices. The expected import volume for the fourth quarter remains ample, contributing to this pressure. Despite the high inventory, the cost support for soybean meal limits downward movement, with uncertainties regarding U.S. soybean imports being a key factor for short-term market fluctuations [2] - Zhengxin Futures indicates that preliminary agreements from U.S.-China-Malaysia talks have led to a strong performance in U.S. soybeans. Domestic soybean procurement for the near term is nearly complete, with sufficient inventory. The market is awaiting specific measures from upcoming high-level talks, with short-term soybean meal prices expected to follow U.S. soybean trends while maintaining a bottoming pattern in the medium to long term. The recommendation is to remain cautious for now [3]