市场受供应短缺影响 焦煤期货呈区间震荡偏强态势

Core Viewpoint - The main focus is on the recent surge in coking coal futures, with prices reaching a peak of 1316.0 yuan and currently trading at 1291.0 yuan, reflecting a 1.85% increase [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Coking coal futures are experiencing wide fluctuations, with expectations of a third round of price increases from coking enterprises due to historically low inventory levels [2] - Domestic production is being constrained by environmental policies and supply shortages, leading to a decrease in mining activity and a reduction in premium coal output by approximately 1.79 million tons [2] - The demand side shows that coking enterprises are facing significant losses, which may affect their operational enthusiasm, while steel mills are also experiencing profit compression, leading to a slight reduction in iron and steel production [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The supply side is impacted by low operating rates in open-pit mines and proactive production cuts in Shanxi coal mines, with daily average production from 523 sample mines decreasing by 70,000 tons compared to May [3] - On the import side, Mongolian coal is facing challenges due to political instability and reduced capacity quotas, resulting in a significant drop in inventory levels and a decline in quality, which increases delivery premiums [3] - Despite slight losses in steel mills, the overall production remains stable at around 2.4 million tons per day, supported by high profit margins earlier in the year and expectations for winter stockpiling in November [3]