智通财经网·2025-10-30 06:17Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan highlights that the "fog" of data releases due to the U.S. government shutdown, combined with the realities of economic and inflation trends, is a source of divergence in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path, leading to increased uncertainty regarding future interest rate cuts [1][2]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but there was significant internal disagreement regarding this decision, with some members advocating for maintaining rates and others for a larger cut of 50 basis points [2] - The Fed will cease balance sheet reduction on December 1 to alleviate tightening liquidity in the money market [2] - The Fed expressed a more optimistic outlook on the economy and greater confidence in controlling inflation [2] Economic Conditions - The employment market is under significant pressure, with structural changes such as a rise in long-term unemployment and a decrease in immigrant participation affecting economic drivers [3] - The current logic for the Fed's rate cuts is that the downward pressure on employment outweighs the upward pressure on inflation [3] Market Expectations - The expectation for rate cuts in December has been adjusted downward following the recent meeting [1][2] - Major asset prices are expected to continue reflecting a preventive rate cut cycle, with U.S. Treasury yields likely to decline further but at a slower pace [3] - U.S. equities, particularly in technology and interest-sensitive sectors like real estate and banking, are expected to remain supported [3] - The U.S. dollar index is anticipated to experience fluctuations, while the long-term bull market for gold is expected to continue [3]