美联储分歧加剧波动 黄金短线偏空试探3900支撑

Group 1: International Gold Market - International gold is currently trading around $3,981.64, with a latest price of $3,959.61 per ounce, reflecting a 0.79% increase, and has seen a high of $3,981.64 and a low of $3,914.92 during the session [1] - The short-term outlook for international gold appears to be oscillating, indicating a potential for volatility in the near term [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve announced the end of the System Open Market Account (SOMA) portfolio reduction on December 1, aligning with market expectations, while the decision-making environment remains complex due to unique funding pressures [2] - Historical trends suggest that markets often rise following the initiation of a rate-cutting cycle, but there are concerns that easing policies could reignite inflation risks, which previously prompted aggressive rate hikes [2] - There are significant internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding the future policy path, with some members advocating for a pause to assess employment risks, while others support a 50 basis point cut [3] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Challenges - The current decision-making process faces challenges due to government shutdowns leading to a lack of key economic data, forcing the Federal Reserve to rely on alternative indicators to assess the labor market [3] - The third-quarter GDP performance exceeded expectations, potentially reducing the immediate need for stimulus, yet the dual risks of rising inflation and declining employment create uncertainty in future policy directions [3] - The interplay of data scarcity and internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve suggests that market volatility may increase in the short term as stakeholders await clearer policy signals [3] Group 4: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices continue to experience downward pressure, remaining below the five-day moving average, with a critical support level at $3,900 [4] - The overall trend for gold remains weak, and if prices remain pressured between $3,980 and $4,000, further short positions may be considered, while monitoring the $3,900 support level for potential stabilization [4]