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江河集团(601886):Q3业绩稳健符合预期 高股息“类债”价值凸显

Core Viewpoint - The company reported stable Q3 performance in line with expectations, with potential for accelerated overseas revenue and profit growth in the future [1] Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 14.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.6% - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.6 billion yuan, an increase of 5.7% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 3.8 billion yuan, up 19% year-on-year [1] - Quarterly revenue for Q1, Q2, and Q3 was 4.20 billion, 5.14 billion, and 5.22 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +2.9%, -12.0%, and -5.2% [1] - The company secured orders worth 22.2 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.1% [1] Profitability and Cash Flow - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was 15.7%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, with Q3 gross margin at 15.6%, up 1.0 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company experienced a net cash outflow of 660 million yuan from operating activities in Q1-Q3, but Q3 saw a net inflow of 370 million yuan, indicating improved cash flow [2] - The net profit margin for Q1-Q3 was 3.14%, an increase of 0.34 percentage points year-on-year [2] Strategic Developments - The company is advancing its "dual-wheel drive" model for international expansion, focusing on traditional EPC models in established markets and platform models in developed and emerging markets [3] - Sales orders for curtain wall products exceeded last year's total by the end of September, with expansion into new markets such as Uzbekistan, Thailand, Israel, and Mongolia [3] - The company has begun global sales of BIPV specialty photovoltaic components, leveraging its curtain wall channels to enter markets in Singapore and the Middle East [3] Investment Outlook - Forecasts for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 are 690 million, 740 million, and 800 million yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 7.6%, 7.8%, and 7.5% respectively [4] - The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 13.0, 12.1, and 11.2 for 2025-2027 [4] - The projected dividend yield for 2025-2027 is 6.1%, 6.6%, and 7.1% based on a minimum payout ratio of 80% [4]