三季度中国市场黄金ETF流出约5.4亿美元 结束了连续三个季度的流入态势

Core Insights - The World Gold Council's report indicates that in Q3 2025, China's retail gold investment and consumption demand reached 152 tons, a year-on-year decline of 7% and a quarter-on-quarter drop of 38%, marking the weakest Q3 demand since 2009 [1] - Despite the decline in volume, the monetary value of retail gold investment and consumption demand soared to 1,204 billion RMB (approximately 169 billion USD), a year-on-year increase of 29%, setting a record for Q3 [1] Category Summaries - Jewelry Demand: In Q3, gold jewelry demand was 84 tons, showing a seasonal quarter-on-quarter increase of 21%, but a year-on-year decrease of 18%. The total monetary value of jewelry consumption was 665 billion RMB (approximately 93 billion USD), with significant growth both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year. For the first three quarters, total jewelry consumption demand was 278 tons, down 25% year-on-year [1] - Gold Bars and Coins: Sales of gold bars and coins increased by 19% year-on-year to 74 tons, but saw a quarter-on-quarter decline of 36% compared to Q2 2025, which was the strongest performance since 2013. Retail gold investment demand for the first three quarters reached 313 tons, the highest level since 2013 [1] - Gold ETFs: The report notes that China's gold ETFs ended a three-quarter inflow trend, with an outflow of 38 billion RMB (approximately 5.4 billion USD) in Q3. Total holdings decreased by 5.8 tons to 194 tons, while the total assets under management (AUM) rose by 11% to 1,688 billion RMB (approximately 237 billion USD), reaching a new monthly high [2] - Central Bank Purchases: The People's Bank of China continued its gold purchasing strategy, acquiring 5 tons in Q3, bringing the official gold reserves to 2,304 tons, which constitutes 7.7% of total foreign exchange reserves [2] - Outlook for Q4: The World Gold Council anticipates a seasonal improvement in gold jewelry consumption in Q4, although this may be tempered by rising gold prices and the later timing of the 2026 Chinese New Year. Potential fiscal or monetary policy stimulus could enhance consumer capacity, potentially alleviating some of the weakness in jewelry consumption. Additionally, geopolitical risks are expected to maintain relatively strong gold investment demand, with continued interest in gold bars and coins if prices remain robust [2]