涨幅第一，风险可控，催化密集--通信ETF（515880）点评

Short-term Outlook - The communication ETF (515880) has increased by 117% as of October 29, ranking first among all ETFs, supported by strong fundamentals and AI narratives [1] - Positive signals in US-China relations have alleviated significant valuation pressures [1] - A busy week for earnings disclosures is expected, with major domestic companies like optical module and PCB leaders reporting, although some revenue recognition may be delayed due to the transition from GB200 to GB300 [1] - Nvidia's GTC conference provided unexpected guidance, with CEO Jensen Huang indicating that Blackwell-Rubin revenue could reach approximately $500 billion over the next two years, significantly exceeding current market expectations [1] - Google, Microsoft, and Meta reported Q3 earnings, with Google’s AI business accelerating and all three major cloud providers increasing capital expenditures [1] Mid to Long-term Outlook - Investment in AI infrastructure is shifting from self-funded cash flow to financing, with potential for increased shipments of computing hardware; for instance, the market size for 400G and above optical modules may double next year [2] - The international macro environment continues to improve, with further liquidity enhancements expected; the global AI wave is anticipated to maintain resonance in both fundamentals and capital [2] Communication ETF Characteristics - As of October 28, the communication ETF has a 52% allocation to optical modules and a 22% allocation to servers, with fiber optics and copper connections contributing to over 81% of the total, reflecting the fundamental strength of overseas computing [4] - In the communication ETF's underlying index (931160), the combined allocation of "servers + optical modules" is 70.77%, the highest among similar indices; when considering components with over 100% growth this year, the combined allocation is 59.54%, also the highest [4]