日本央行维持基准利率不变 植田和男强调数据依赖与外部风险

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.5%, aligning with market expectations, while indicating that future rate hikes will depend on economic data rather than a predetermined schedule [1] Monetary Policy Decisions - The BOJ's decision was passed with a vote of 7 in favor and 2 against, with dissenting members advocating for a 25 basis point increase [1] - BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the Japanese economy is experiencing a moderate recovery but still shows signs of weakness, particularly due to high uncertainty in overseas trade policies [1][2] External Pressures and Policy Independence - Ueda highlighted the potential impact of U.S. trade policies on the Japanese economy, noting that tariff costs could be passed on to consumers, affecting inflation and consumption [2] - Ueda reaffirmed that monetary policy is not influenced by political situations and emphasized the importance of close cooperation with the government [2] Inflation and Wage Dynamics - Japan's inflation has exceeded the BOJ's 2% target for 41 consecutive months, driven mainly by temporary factors affecting food prices [3] - The upcoming spring wage negotiations in 2025 will be crucial for assessing the sustainability of consumption and inflation, particularly in the automotive sector [3] Market Expectations and Future Rate Hikes - Despite maintaining the current interest rate, the BOJ reiterated its policy path, indicating potential rate increases if economic and price trends align with expectations [3][4] - Market analysts view the December meeting as a possible window for a rate hike, with expectations of gradual action from the BOJ in the coming year [3][4] Fiscal and Monetary Policy Coordination - New Prime Minister Hamada is seen as a supporter of "Abenomics," advocating for loose monetary policy and large-scale fiscal spending, while emphasizing the need for coordination between the BOJ and the government [4][5] - There is an inherent tension between fiscal expansion plans and the international demand for a stronger yen, with current exchange rates significantly lower than perceived fair value [5]