鲍威尔鹰派发言重挫比特币：一度失守10.8万美元后艰难收复11万

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin experienced a decline following hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, dropping 3.1% to below $108,000, before recovering slightly to trade around $111,315 [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Impact - The Federal Reserve announced a 0.25 percentage point cut in the benchmark interest rate to 3.75%-4%, marking the second consecutive rate cut, but Powell cautioned against assuming further cuts in the future [3]. - Following Powell's remarks, the probability of a 25 basis point cut in December dropped from nearly 100% to about 60% [3]. - Powell's comments triggered risk-off sentiment in the market, impacting Bitcoin's performance despite some gains in tech stocks [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Bitcoin's decline accelerated after the U.S.-China summit, although selling pressure eased quickly, indicating mixed market reactions [3]. - The overall cryptocurrency market remains bearish, with Bitcoin's decline for the week at 4%, reflecting uncertainty about liquidity conditions and risk appetite [4]. - Despite the bearish trend, there are signs of recovering optimism, as the long-to-short ratio for Bitcoin has risen above 2.0, and open interest increased from $34 billion to $35 billion, suggesting traders are increasing leveraged positions in anticipation of a rebound [4]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Technically, the 4-hour and daily RSI readings remain in bearish territory, indicating that corrections may not be fully over [4]. - For Bitcoin to sustain a recovery, it must break through the resistance cluster formed by the 20, 50, and 100 EMA around $112,000, which could shift short-term sentiment to bullish [4]. - Conversely, if momentum weakens again, the next downside target would be last week's low of $106,600, while a successful rebound could see prices return to $116,000 or even $118,000 with increased buying support [4][5].