中加基金权益周报︱四中全会顺利召开，利率震荡走高

Market Overview and Analysis - The primary market saw the issuance of government bonds, local government bonds, and policy financial bonds amounting to 689.1 billion, 247.2 billion, and 140 billion respectively, with net financing of 23.6 billion, 165.8 billion, and -104.6 billion [1] - Non-financial credit bonds had a total issuance of 457 billion, with a net financing of 140.3 billion [1] Secondary Market Review - Interest rates experienced fluctuations, influenced by factors such as the Fourth Plenary Session, stock-bond dynamics, monetary policy expectations, liquidity conditions, and Sino-US negotiation prospects [2] Liquidity Tracking - The net injection in the open market was 198.1 billion, with a 900 billion MLF renewal scheduled for the following Monday. The liquidity remained loose, with attention on whether the upcoming tax period would cause changes in liquidity [3] Policy and Fundamentals - The Fourth Plenary Session announced seven major economic and social development goals for the 14th Five-Year Plan. The GDP growth for Q3 was 4.8%, in line with expectations, while the cumulative GDP growth for the first three quarters was 5.2%. Industrial output in September exceeded expectations, while fixed asset investment and retail sales were slightly below expectations [4] Overseas Market - Concerns over credit risks in US regional banks have eased, and there are signs of a thaw in Sino-US trade relations. The US CPI for September was below expectations, leading to fluctuations in the US stock market and a rebound in the dollar index [5] Equity Market - The A-share market was positively influenced by expectations of improved Sino-US relations, a focus on "technology industry" during the Fourth Plenary Session, and increased orders for optical modules from North American companies. The Wande All A index rose by 3.47%, with the communication, electronics, and power equipment sectors leading the gains, particularly the communication sector which surged by 11.55%. However, trading volume significantly decreased, with an average daily trading volume of 1.8 trillion, down by 395.54 billion week-on-week. As of October 23, 2025, the total financing balance for All A was 2,433.902 billion, a decrease of 6.2 billion from October 16 [6] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - The goal of achieving a per capita GDP at the level of moderately developed countries by 2035 suggests that the GDP target for next year may remain around 5%, considering the need for policy redundancy amid future uncertainties. This week, the central bank will participate in the Financial Street Forum, and a Sino-US summit is scheduled, along with a Federal Reserve meeting, indicating a busy macro policy event calendar. The current 10-year government bond yield is at a median level since September, and potential disturbances in the bond market may arise if monetary policy increments fall short of expectations or if the Sino-US talks yield unexpected progress. The market currently exhibits significant uncertainty, with differing views on economic issues. While there is not much pressure from an annual economic target perspective, maintaining stability in the economic trend requires supportive policies. Attention should be paid to the willingness to implement strong domestic demand policies, with bank convertible bonds and dividend-value stocks standing out in terms of risk control, while sectors with limited supply increments and global pricing demand present substantial research value [7]