中加基金配置周报|二十届四中全会召开，美国核心通胀走弱

Economic Data Summary - China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with quarterly growth rates of 5.4%, 5.2%, and 4.8% respectively [1] - In September, industrial output increased by 6.5% year-on-year, while retail sales rose by 3% [1] - Fixed asset investment decreased by 0.5% year-on-year, but grew by 3% when excluding real estate development [1] - The average disposable income per capita for residents was 32,509 yuan, reflecting a real growth of 5.2% after adjusting for price factors [1] U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. CPI rose by 3% year-on-year in September, the highest since January, but below market expectations of 3.1% [1] - Core CPI showed a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, also lower than anticipated [1] - Service sector inflation reached its weakest level since November 2021 [1] - The market has largely priced in two 25 basis point rate cuts by the Federal Reserve for the remainder of the year [1] Market Performance - The S&P Global reported that the U.S. manufacturing PMI for October was 52.2, and the services PMI was 55.2, both showing improvement from September [1] - The composite PMI for October was 54.8, indicating a recovery in economic activity [1] - New orders composite index reached its highest level of the year, with manufacturing orders showing the strongest growth since February of the previous year [1] APEC Meeting and U.S.-China Relations - Chinese President Xi Jinping will attend the APEC informal leaders' meeting in South Korea from October 30 to November 1 [2] - There is ongoing communication regarding a potential meeting between the Chinese and U.S. presidents during the APEC conference [2] - Recent U.S.-China trade talks focused on key issues such as maritime logistics, tariffs, and agricultural trade, resulting in a basic consensus on addressing mutual concerns [3] Stock Market Overview - The A-share market showed a rebound, with the ChiNext Index rising by 8.05%, the largest increase among major indices [7] - The overall market sentiment improved due to expectations of easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China [7] - The S&P 500 index increased by 1.92%, while the Nasdaq index rose by 2.31%, reflecting a positive response to weaker inflation data [8] Bond Market Insights - The bond market experienced fluctuations, with credit bonds generally declining and government bonds showing slight increases [10][12] - The U.S. Treasury yields saw minor movements, influenced by mixed economic signals and trade tensions [12] - The domestic bond market is expected to remain volatile due to ongoing economic uncertainties and policy adjustments [10]