《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》点评-供需结构改善或持续优化金属行业盈利能力及估值水平

Core Viewpoint - The recent reports from the Central Committee and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology provide clear guidance for the development of China's non-ferrous metal industry, emphasizing a path of high-quality green development [1][2]. Supply Side Analysis - The reports indicate a focus on the protection of strategic minerals and controlled growth of production capacity, aiming for low-speed, stable, and high-quality growth in non-ferrous metal output [2][3]. - The protection and increase of strategic mineral reserves are crucial due to China's low reserves and high external dependence, with the government planning to utilize long-term special bonds to support resource development [3]. - The production of ten types of non-ferrous metals is projected to grow by 4.3% year-on-year in 2024, with an average annual growth target of around 1.5% for 2025-2026, indicating a significant contraction in supply growth [4]. Demand Side Analysis - The reports highlight the expansion of demand driven by the development of new productive forces and related industries, particularly in green low-carbon energy and new material sectors [6][7]. - The demand for copper is expected to see a compound annual growth rate of 16% from 2025 to 2030 due to emerging applications in electric vehicles and data centers, significantly impacting global copper demand [7]. Export Regulation and Strategic Positioning - China is transitioning from being a "resource power" to a "rule power," implementing export licensing and quota management for rare metals to secure global pricing power [8][9]. - The export controls on rare earths and gallium have become strategic tools in trade relations, with significant price increases observed in the market due to these measures [9].