Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosheng Securities expresses optimism about XPeng Motors' strong product cycle, overseas expansion, advancements in intelligent driving, and emerging business opportunities in robotics and Robotaxi services. The company is projected to achieve sales of approximately 450,000, 680,000, and 1,010,000 vehicles from 2025 to 2027, with total revenues reaching 80.6 billion, 133.3 billion, and 188.5 billion yuan respectively, and a non-GAAP net profit margin of -1.5%, 3.4%, and 5.2% for the same years. The target price is set at 126 HKD or 32.4 USD, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]. Group 1: AI Development and Model Training - XPeng's AI team has been developing a physical AI foundational model for over a year, with significant advancements reported in a recent AI technology sharing event [1]. - The company is working on a large-scale autonomous driving model with 72 billion parameters, which is approximately 35 times larger than mainstream VLA models. The training data volume is expected to reach 200 million clips [1]. - The model's training speed has improved fivefold due to the development of a proprietary data infrastructure, enhancing data upload scale by 22 times and training data bandwidth by 15 times [1]. Group 2: Competitive Edge in Hardware and Software - XPeng's software and robotics models are interconnected, allowing for rapid deployment of AI capabilities across various platforms, including AI cars and robots [2]. - The self-developed Turing chip offers higher effective computing power at a lower cost, with a single chip equivalent to three Orin-X chips. The new P7 and G7 Ultra models are equipped with three Turing chips, and the L4 model planned for 2026 will feature 3000 TOPS of computing power [2]. - The combination of high computing power and larger models is expected to significantly enhance the driving experience and position XPeng as a leader among domestic automakers [2]. Group 3: Industry Comparisons - Tesla is also advancing in high-performance chip development and has introduced a "world simulator" that demonstrates the versatility of its AI systems for both vehicles and robots [3]. - Tesla's fourth-generation hardware aims to increase AI parameters significantly, with future hardware expected to enhance computing power by tenfold at the same cost [3]. - The similarities in technological approaches and business strategies between XPeng and Tesla suggest a competitive landscape where both companies are likely to achieve breakthroughs in physical AI [3].
国盛证券:维持小鹏汽车-W(09868)“买入”评级 目标价126港元