降息“靴子”落地，最新解读

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, marking the fifth rate cut since September 2024 [1][2] - The decision aligns with market expectations, and there is potential for continued rate cuts in the future, with estimates suggesting up to three additional cuts over the next 12 months [2][4] - The current rate remains above the neutral rate of 3.5%, indicating room for further policy easing depending on employment and inflation targets [2] Group 2 - The impact of the rate cut is expected to be significant on global asset prices, with U.S. equities likely to experience short-term volatility but long-term dependence on economic fundamentals [3][4] - U.S. Treasury yields may rise in the short term but are expected to trend downward in the medium term, leading to potential increases in bond prices [3][4] - The dollar index may face limited upward movement, while gold could benefit from improved liquidity conditions, although its appeal as a safe-haven asset may be temporarily suppressed [3] Group 3 - The A-share market is anticipated to continue its positive momentum, supported by the Fed's rate cut and a favorable liquidity environment [5][6] - The bond market is expected to remain strong, with the potential for capital inflows into Chinese bonds as the Fed's actions alleviate pressure on the RMB exchange rate [6] - The easing of monetary policy in both the U.S. and China is likely to enhance the attractiveness of Chinese bonds, with expectations of further rate cuts domestically [6]