Ge Long Hui A P P·2025-10-30 09:32Core Viewpoint - The energy storage sector is experiencing a significant turning point driven by favorable policies, surging demand, and rapid profit recovery, indicating a potential resurgence and value reassessment in 2025 [1][4]. Group 1: Policy Support - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have outlined a plan for new energy storage, targeting an installed capacity of over 180 million kilowatts by 2027, with direct investment expected to reach approximately 250 billion yuan [6]. - The industry is transitioning from "mandatory storage" to "independent storage," enhancing market vitality and diversifying revenue sources [7]. - The new five-year plan emphasizes increasing the proportion of renewable energy supply and promoting high-quality development of clean energy [7]. Group 2: Market Demand - Domestic new energy storage installations reached 75.9 GWh in the first eight months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 42%, with lithium battery shipments expected to reach 580 GWh for the year, growing over 75% [8]. - Internationally, global energy storage cell shipments are projected to hit 226 GWh in 2025, a 97% increase, with Chinese companies holding a 90% market share [9]. - The Inflation Reduction Act in the U.S. has extended tax credits until 2035, stimulating global energy storage project tenders [9]. Group 3: Industry Performance - Leading battery manufacturer CATL reported a Q3 revenue of 104.186 billion yuan, a 12.9% year-on-year increase, with net profit soaring 41.21% [17]. - Sungrow achieved a Q3 revenue of 22.869 billion yuan, up 20.83%, with net profit increasing by 57.04% [18]. - Other companies like EVE Energy and Guoxuan High-Tech also reported significant revenue and profit growth, indicating a broader recovery in the energy storage sector [20][21]. Group 4: Future Trends - Key trends to watch include policy developments related to energy storage and the integration of artificial intelligence data centers, which are expected to drive demand [25][28]. - The energy storage industry is positioned for high growth and certainty, with projected internal rates of return (IRR) between 6% and 12% [26]. - The valuation of the energy storage sector is currently around 35 times PE-TTM, lower than the projected 45 times for 2024, indicating potential for valuation recovery [32]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The energy storage battery ETF has seen significant capital inflow, with over 590 million yuan in net inflow over the past 20 days, indicating strong investor interest [24]. - The ETF includes major companies like Sungrow, CATL, and Guoxuan High-Tech, reflecting a diversified investment approach in the energy storage sector [38].