破顶后的铜价步入回调轨迹? 市场热议铜将复刻黄金“高处不胜寒”

Group 1 - The unprecedented AI boom has led to a surge in copper demand, with international copper prices reaching record highs due to concerns over global supply and hopes for a positive US-China trade agreement [1][2] - Year-to-date, LME copper prices have increased by over 27%, primarily driven by a weakening US dollar and global interest rate declines led by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank [1] - Copper is widely used in various sectors such as electricity, construction, industrial machinery, transportation, and communication, making it a key indicator of global economic activity [1] Group 2 - The construction of data centers in the AI and digital transformation era is driving explosive growth in copper demand, with major companies like Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta heavily investing in copper-dependent infrastructure [2] - Analysts from ING predict a tighter copper market supply-demand balance in 2026, with expectations of a copper supply shortage [2] - Mining giant Glencore reported a decline in copper production for the first nine months of 2025, contributing to concerns over supply constraints [2] Group 3 - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) forecasts a refined copper market shortage of approximately 150,000 tons next year, with total consumption expected to be around 28.7 million tons [4] - Some analysts believe that the recent copper price surge is largely priced in due to easing global trade tensions and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, leading to potential investor pullback [4] - WisdomTree's commodity strategist noted that excessive speculative bets in the futures market could lead to significant price corrections, as seen in other metal markets [4]