全球黄金需求三季度创历史新高，避险需求激增成主要推手

Core Insights - The World Gold Council's latest report indicates that global gold demand reached a record high of 1,313 tons and a total value of $146 billion in Q3 2025, driven by heightened interest in gold as a safe-haven asset amid global market volatility [1] Investment Demand Surge - Investment demand for gold surged to 537 tons in Q3, marking a significant 47% year-on-year increase and accounting for 55% of total gold net demand [3] - Factors contributing to this increase include geopolitical uncertainties, a weakening dollar, and rising gold prices, which have triggered a "fear of missing out" (FOMO) among investors [3] - Gold ETFs saw substantial inflows, with global holdings increasing by 222 tons and inflow amounts reaching $26 billion in Q3 [3] - For the first three quarters of 2025, global gold ETF holdings increased by 619 tons (approximately $64 billion), with North American funds leading the way [3] Jewelry Consumption Pressure - In contrast to the booming investment demand, global jewelry consumption faced significant pressure, declining by 19% year-on-year to 371 tons in Q3, the lowest level for that quarter since 2020 [4] - Despite a seasonal rebound in India and China, year-on-year performance remained weak [4] - Central banks continued to purchase gold, with net purchases totaling 220 tons in Q3, a 28% increase from Q2 and a 10% year-on-year rise [4] Chinese Market Dynamics - The Chinese market exhibited structural characteristics, with total retail gold investment and consumption (including jewelry, bars, coins, and ETFs) declining by 7% year-on-year to 152 tons in Q3, the weakest performance since 2009 [5] - However, the monetary value of this demand reached a historical high of 120.4 billion yuan (approximately $16.9 billion), reflecting a 29% year-on-year increase [5] - Gold bar and coin sales in China rose by 19% year-on-year to 74 tons, while gold ETF experienced a net outflow of 3.8 billion yuan in Q3 [6] Market Outlook - The outlook for the gold market remains optimistic, driven by persistent factors such as geopolitical tensions, high inflation, and uncertainties in global trade policies [6] - The report anticipates a seasonal improvement in jewelry consumption in China in Q4, while investment demand is expected to remain relatively strong [6]