Group 1 - The World Bank's report indicates that global commodity prices are expected to decline for the fourth consecutive year in 2026, reaching a six-year low due to weak economic growth, oversupply of oil, and ongoing policy uncertainties [1][3] - Precious metal prices are projected to reach historical highs in 2025, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets and ongoing central bank purchases of gold [1][4] - Energy prices are expected to decrease by 12% in 2025 and further by 10% in 2026, with Brent crude oil prices forecasted to drop from $68 per barrel in 2025 to $60 per barrel in 2026, marking a five-year low [4] Group 2 - Food prices are also anticipated to decline, with a projected decrease of 6.1% in 2025 and a slight drop of 0.3% in 2026, influenced by record production and trade tensions [4] - Fertilizer prices are expected to rise by 21% in 2025 due to increased production costs and trade restrictions, potentially squeezing farmers' profit margins [4] - Gold prices are expected to increase by 42% in 2025 and by an additional 5% in 2026, reaching nearly double the average prices from 2015-2019, while silver prices are projected to rise by 34% in 2025 [4] Group 3 - The report suggests that the decline in commodity prices may exceed expectations if global economic growth remains weak amid trade tensions and policy uncertainties [3][4] - The World Bank recommends that countries abandon price control measures and instead focus on promoting diversified and efficient production, investing in technological innovation, and enhancing data transparency to improve resilience against price volatility [3] - Geopolitical tensions and conflicts could lead to increased oil prices and boost demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver, while extreme weather events could disrupt agricultural production and raise food and energy prices [4][14]
世行：原油供应过剩加剧，预计金价今年将上涨42%
Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-10-30 10:37