香港银行公会：美国降息走向仍存在不确定性 未来港美息差收窄有利香港经济发展

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 0.25% as expected, while three issuing banks have also reduced their prime rates by 0.125%. The market's expectation for further rate cuts in December has cooled, indicating uncertainty in future interest rate trends [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Changes - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates aligns with market expectations, impacting the prime rates of local banks [1]. - The adjustment of the prime rate is a commercial decision by individual banks, influenced by their funding costs and business strategies [2]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - Positive signals from the recent meeting between the leaders of China and the U.S. suggest a potential signing of a trade agreement, which may alleviate market uncertainties and inflation pressures, supporting a more accommodative monetary policy [1]. - The Hong Kong banking system's liquidity has tightened, with interbank liquidity falling to approximately HKD 54 billion, leading to expectations of narrow fluctuations in the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) [1]. - The average daily trading volume in Hong Kong's stock market has exceeded HKD 250 billion this year, indicating improved investor sentiment and a projected economic growth of 2% to 3% for Hong Kong, in line with government forecasts [1]. Group 3: Future Projections - HIBOR is expected to follow the downward trend of U.S. interest rates, which will benefit corporate clients by reducing their funding costs [2]. - The interest rate differential between Hong Kong and the U.S. is anticipated to narrow gradually, which is favorable for Hong Kong's economic development [1].