长海股份(300196)：量升价降 Q3业绩同增环减

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.359 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.02%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 257 million yuan, up 27.16% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2025, revenue reached 904 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 33.13%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 84 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.18% [1] - The increase in production volume was driven by demand from the wind power and automotive sectors, with a monthly average production of 705,700 tons in Q3 2025, up 15.93% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the average price of alkali-free glass fiber yarn was 4,284 yuan per ton, showing a year-on-year decrease of 1.07% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.12% [1] - The company's gross margin decreased by 2.18 percentage points in Q3 2025, and the net profit margin fell by 2.57 percentage points, primarily due to the decline in product prices [1] - The company's expense ratios showed a decrease in Q3 2025, with the total expense ratio down by 2.81 percentage points, sales expense ratio down by 0.02 percentage points, management expense ratio down by 0.87 percentage points, R&D expense ratio down by 0.73 percentage points, and financial expense ratio down by 1.19 percentage points [1] Industry Outlook - The China Glass Fiber Industry Association has initiated a campaign against "involution" competition, aiming to establish a fair and orderly competitive environment in the glass fiber industry, which is expected to stabilize and improve the pricing of glass fiber yarn [2] - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 340 million yuan, 413 million yuan, and 471 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 24%, 21%, and 14% [2] - The latest closing price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 19x, 15x, and 14x for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, maintaining an "overweight" rating [2]