Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-10-30 13:21Core Insights - The Chinese automotive market is at a critical turning point in 2025, characterized by slowing growth and structural differentiation, with a notable decline in the penetration rate of plug-in hybrid vehicles and a more diverse competitive landscape among brands [1][2]. Market Trends - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) has significantly slowed, with an increase of less than 4 percentage points from January to September 2025, compared to a 12.5 percentage point increase in 2024 [2]. - The plug-in hybrid market has experienced a rare decline in penetration rate, dropping from 21.1% in 2024 to 19.8% in the first three quarters of 2025, while pure electric vehicles continue to rise from 26.6% to 31.4% [2][3]. Sales Contributions - In 2024, plug-in hybrids sold 1.247 million units, contributing 69.7% to the overall increase in NEV sales, but by the first three quarters of 2025, sales plummeted to 272,000 units, contributing only 15.1% [3]. - The weakening of the plug-in hybrid market is attributed to market saturation in lower-tier cities and increased competition from fuel vehicles, which have seen a price drop, making them more appealing to consumers [3][4]. Competitive Landscape - The market is witnessing a diversification of brands, with companies like Geely and Leap Motor rapidly gaining market share, altering the previously dominant position of BYD [5]. - The interaction data from automotive apps indicates a growing consumer interest across various brands, with significant engagement metrics for new models from Geely and Xiaomi [5]. Export Market Dynamics - China's automotive exports have shown a steady increase, with 4.95 million units exported from January to September 2025, a year-on-year growth of 14.8%, and projections suggest exports could exceed 7.5 million units in 2025 [6][7]. - The export landscape is shifting from reliance on a few major companies to a more diversified group of manufacturers, with BYD and Chery leading the charge [6][7]. Second-Hand Vehicle Export Potential - The second-hand vehicle export market in China remains underdeveloped, accounting for only 7% of total automotive exports, indicating significant growth potential compared to mature markets [7][8]. - The future of second-hand vehicle exports is expected to evolve into a dual model of platform-based and self-operated businesses, focusing on local market integration and resource optimization [8].