Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-10-30 13:35Core Insights - The Chinese automotive market is at a critical turning point in 2025, characterized by slowing growth and structural differentiation, with a notable decline in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) and a diversified competitive landscape among brands [2][3]. NEV Market Trends - The growth rate of NEV penetration has significantly slowed, with an increase of less than 4 percentage points from January to September 2025, compared to a 12.5 percentage point increase in 2024 [3]. - The proportion of consumers opting for NEVs under the trade-in policy decreased from 60% in 2024 to 53% in early 2025, indicating a weakening driving force for NEV penetration [3]. - The penetration rate of plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) has declined from 21.1% in 2024 to 19.8% in 2025, while pure electric vehicles (EVs) continue to rise from 26.6% to 31.4% during the same period [3][4]. PHEV Market Dynamics - PHEV sales dropped sharply from 124.7 million units in 2024 to 27.2 million units in the first three quarters of 2025, leading to a decrease in their contribution to overall NEV growth from 69.7% to 15.1% [4][5]. - The weakening momentum in the PHEV market is attributed to market saturation in lower-tier cities and increased competition from fuel vehicles, which have lowered their prices significantly [5]. Competitive Landscape - The NEV market is witnessing increased competition, with brands like Geely and Leap Motor gaining market share, disrupting BYD's previous dominance [6]. - In the first nine months of 2025, Geely's NEV sales increased by 566,000 units, while Changan and Xiaomi also reported significant sales growth [6]. - Joint venture brands are also entering the NEV market aggressively, with new models achieving monthly sales of 8,000 to 10,000 units, indicating a resurgence in competition [7]. Export Market Developments - China's automotive exports reached 4.95 million units in the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, with expectations to exceed 7.5 million units for the entire year [8][9]. - The export growth is shifting from a few major companies to a more diversified group of manufacturers, with BYD and Chery leading the charge [9]. - The second-hand car export market is emerging as a potential growth area, with only 7% of total automotive exports in 2024, indicating significant room for expansion [9][10]. Future Outlook - The second-hand car export market is expected to grow, particularly in regions like Africa and Southeast Asia, with a projected growth rate of nearly 85% in the African market [10][11]. - Companies are advised to focus on establishing after-sales networks in key export markets and to leverage existing resources to avoid blind investments [11].