Workflow
保险利率稳住了！ 三季度关键数据出炉
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen·2025-10-30 13:45

Core Viewpoint - The current research value for the predetermined interest rate of ordinary life insurance products is 1.90%, which is close to the maximum value of 2.0%, and the decline in the assessment value is expected to narrow due to rising 10-year government bond yields [1][2][3]. Group 1: Predetermined Interest Rate Assessment - The maximum predetermined interest rate for ordinary life insurance products is currently 2.0%, with a research value of 1.90%, indicating a small difference of 0.1 percentage points [1][2]. - The research value for the predetermined interest rate has been on a downward trend, with previous values recorded at 2.13% and 1.99% in earlier quarters of 2025 [2][3]. - The assessment mechanism requires a reduction in the maximum predetermined interest rate if it exceeds the research value by 25 basis points for two consecutive quarters [2]. Group 2: Market Expectations and Trends - Analysts expect that the predetermined interest rate research value will stabilize around 1.90% in 2026, with a possibility of slight upward adjustments if interest rates rise [3][5]. - The ongoing increase in 10-year government bond yields has contributed to a narrowing decline in the research value for the third quarter [3]. - The insurance industry is likely to see a significant transformation towards dividend insurance products, which are expected to dominate the market by 2025 [4][5]. Group 3: Impact on Insurance Companies - The reduction in predetermined interest rates is effectively lowering the liability costs for insurance companies, thereby alleviating risks associated with interest rate spreads [4]. - Major companies like China Life and Taikang Life have seen their liability costs decrease to between 2.4% and 2.5% in 2024, with further reductions anticipated following the new round of interest rate adjustments [4][5]. - The shift towards dividend insurance products is seen as a necessary trend for the industry, providing both cost reduction for insurers and potential higher returns for customers [4][5].