专访中信建投黄文涛:“五年计划”政策理念与时俱进
Nan Fang Du Shi Bao·2025-10-30 13:51

Core Insights - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is positioned as a critical period for achieving socialist modernization, emphasizing the importance of foundational work and comprehensive efforts [2][3] - The plan acknowledges complex changes in the development environment, highlighting both strategic opportunities and risks, while showcasing the advantages of the socialist system and large-scale market [3] Group 1: Focus on Technological Innovation and Modernization of the Industrial System - The inclusion of "new quality productivity" in the planning framework reflects an upgrade in value orientation, emphasizing the role of technological innovation in fostering new industrial forms and dynamics [5] - The plan prioritizes the construction of a modern industrial system, reinforcing the foundation of the real economy, and calls for the acceleration of the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries [5][9] Group 2: Emphasis on Market and Government Complementarity - The plan highlights the combination of "effective market + proactive government," marking a shift towards a complementary division of labor between market and government in macro governance [6] - This change will influence future policy directions, including initiatives to boost consumption and support enterprises [6] Group 3: Evolution of Policy Concepts in Five-Year Plans - The evolution of the five-year planning approach reflects a shift in policy concepts, moving from quantity expansion to a balanced focus on quality and reasonable growth [7][8] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes qualitative improvements and the integration of innovation, ecology, and security as key themes for future development [7][8] Group 4: Key Transformations in Economic Growth and Supply-Demand Relations - The plan emphasizes the construction of a modern industrial system and the solidification of the real economy as primary objectives, with a focus on upgrading traditional industries and expanding modern services [9][10] - It also stresses the importance of expanding domestic demand and integrating investments in both physical and human capital [10] Group 5: Risk Prevention and Bottom-Line Thinking - The plan aims to promote high-quality development in the real estate sector while addressing local debt risks through systematic and forward-looking management [11] - It emphasizes enhancing resilience against external shocks and internal transformation pains, with a focus on public safety and social governance [11][12] Group 6: Macro Policy Approach - The macro policy strategy will continue to balance "precise support and risk control," with a focus on maintaining growth while ensuring quality and safety in economic operations [12] - The plan aims to effectively address existing risks in real estate and local debt while releasing long-term growth potential [12]