每日机构分析：10月30日

Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - The potential new Fed chair candidate, Reed, suggests that Powell's stance is more hawkish than expected, increasing the likelihood of skipping a rate cut in December, potentially delaying further easing measures into the new year [1][2] - Nomura Securities has retracted its prediction for a December rate cut after Powell's press conference indicated that a December hike is not guaranteed, with current market expectations for a rate cut by year-end at approximately 72%, down from 91% prior to the Fed's decision [1][2] - CICC estimates that the Fed still has room for three more rate cuts, but the pace of cuts may slow down, influenced by government shutdowns and economic data releases [2] Group 2: European Central Bank (ECB) Outlook - Danske Bank indicates that the ECB is likely to maintain interest rates unchanged in October, with data aligning closely with expectations, although there are growing divergences among members regarding inflation outlooks [3] - ECB President Lagarde is expected to reaffirm a data-dependent approach to decision-making, while the market may be pricing in upward risks for potential rate cuts [3] Group 3: Bank of Japan (BoJ) Policy - Mizuho Bank emphasizes that the BoJ is committed to a gradual normalization of its policy stance, with market participants adjusting their expectations for future policy changes [4] - State Street Global Advisors notes that the likelihood of a BoJ rate hike increases if global trade uncertainties are better assessed, with potential adjustments expected in the coming meetings [4] Group 4: Australian Economic Outlook - HSBC's Australian division reports that unexpected increases in core inflation have fundamentally altered the outlook for official interest rates, with expectations for a rate hike potentially occurring in early 2027 [5]