降息“靴子”落地 最新解读

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 3.75%–4.00%, marking the fifth rate cut since September 2024, aligning with market expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Market Expectations and Future Rate Outlook - The recent rate cut was fully anticipated by the market, with expectations for a continued easing cycle in the future [2]. - Discrepancies within the Federal Reserve regarding future rate paths have widened, with upcoming decisions heavily reliant on delayed economic data due to the U.S. government shutdown [2]. - The probability of a rate cut in December has decreased from over 90% to around 70% [2]. Group 2: Impact on Global Asset Prices - The rate cut is expected to have profound effects on global asset prices, with U.S. equities likely to experience short-term volatility but long-term dependence on economic fundamentals [3]. - U.S. Treasury yields may rise in the short term but are expected to trend downward in the medium term as the easing cycle progresses [3]. - The dollar index may find short-term support but has limited upside potential, while gold could benefit from improved liquidity conditions [3]. Group 3: A-shares and Bond Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to continue its positive momentum, supported by the easing of capital outflow pressures from emerging markets and a favorable liquidity environment [6]. - The bond market is anticipated to remain strong, with the potential for further rate cuts in China, alleviating pressure from the U.S.-China interest rate differential [6]. - The easing of monetary policy in both the U.S. and China is likely to enhance the attractiveness of Chinese bonds, potentially drawing in more allocation funds [6].