Powell Doubts December Rate Cut: Why Bitcoin’s Usual Fed Boost Could Falter This Time

Core Insights - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's indication that another rate cut in December is "not guaranteed" has created uncertainty in the markets, particularly affecting Bitcoin's typical response to rate cuts [1][3][7] - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut of 25 basis points, the second consecutive cut, aims to support a slowing U.S. economy, but divisions within the Federal Open Market Committee regarding future cuts have emerged [2][4][5] Monetary Policy Impact - Powell's comments reflect a lack of consensus among Fed members on the pace of monetary easing, with some advocating for more aggressive cuts while others caution against rapid reductions due to ongoing inflation concerns [4][5] - The probability of a December rate cut has significantly decreased, dropping to about 56% from nearly 90% the previous day, which has led to fluctuations in U.S. equities [6] Bitcoin Market Reaction - Bitcoin's historical tendency to rally during Fed rate cuts may be challenged this cycle due to the uncertainty surrounding future monetary policy [7][8] - Analysts suggest that Bitcoin's recent upward movement, which began from a low of $103,530 on October 17, is showing signs of fatigue and remains within a constrained upward channel [9]