Can AON Beat Q3 Earnings on Commercial Risk Solutions Strength?

Core Insights - Aon plc is scheduled to report its third-quarter 2025 results on October 31, 2025, with earnings estimated at $2.89 per share and revenues of $3.94 billion [1][6] Earnings Estimates - The earnings estimate has remained stable over the past 60 days, indicating a year-over-year increase of 6.3%, while revenue is projected to grow by 5.9% year-over-year [2] - Aon has beaten the consensus estimate for earnings in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 3% [3] Earnings Prediction Model - Aon's earnings prediction model suggests a likely earnings beat, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +0.60% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [4] Revenue Growth by Segment - Commercial Risk Solutions is expected to see a revenue growth of 6.1% from $1.85 billion a year ago, with a forecast of 5% organic growth [5][6] - Health Solutions is projected to grow by 6.6% year-over-year, supported by global expansion initiatives [7] - Reinsurance Solutions is estimated to grow by 5.6% from $503 million last year, aided by favorable retention rates and new business generation [8] - Wealth Solutions is expected to see a 5.1% increase from $499 million, driven by sustained demand for advisory services [9] Expense Outlook - Total operating expenses are projected to rise by 3.5%, primarily due to increased compensation and benefits costs, with general expenses estimated at $411.3 million and compensation costs exceeding $2.2 billion [11][10] Peer Performance Comparison - Marsh & McLennan reported adjusted earnings of $1.85 per share, surpassing estimates by 3.4% with an 11% year-over-year increase [12] - Hartford Insurance reported adjusted operating earnings of $3.78 per share, exceeding estimates by 20.8% and climbing 49% year-over-year [13] - RenaissanceRe reported operating income of $15.62 per share, beating estimates by 64.6% and soaring 52.7% year-over-year [14]