Super Micro Computer Earnings Preview: What to Expect

Company Overview - Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) is based in San Jose, California, and specializes in high-performance server and storage solutions with a modular and open architecture. The company has a market capitalization of $30.6 billion and operates across the United States, Europe, Asia, and internationally [1]. Earnings Expectations - Analysts anticipate that SMCI will report an adjusted EPS of $0.32 for the first quarter, representing a significant decline of 52.2% from $0.67 in the same quarter last year. The company has missed bottom-line projections twice in the last three quarters but exceeded estimates once [2]. - For the full fiscal year 2026, the adjusted EPS is expected to be $2.19, reflecting a 27.3% increase from $1.72 in fiscal 2025. In fiscal 2027, earnings are projected to rise by 36.5% year-over-year to $2.99 per share [3]. Stock Performance - Over the past 52 weeks, SMCI stock has increased by 9.7%, which is significantly lower than the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund's (XLK) 31.2% gain and the S&P 500 Index's 18.3% return during the same period [4]. - The stock has experienced volatility since last year due to corporate governance issues and accounting manipulation, with a notable drop of over 18% in a single trading session following the Q4 results announcement on August 5. Despite a year-over-year increase in net sales of 7.5% to $5.8 billion, the results fell short of market expectations by 3.8%. Additionally, gross margins have been declining, leading to a 26.2% year-over-year decrease in adjusted net income to $260.7 million, which also missed consensus estimates [5]. Analyst Ratings - Analysts maintain a cautious outlook on SMCI, with a consensus "Hold" rating. Among the 19 analysts covering the stock, there are four "Strong Buys," three "Moderate Buys," nine "Holds," one "Moderate Sell," and two "Strong Sells." Currently, the stock is trading above its mean price target of $48.64 [6].