美联储如期降息25个基点 鲍威尔施展预期管理平衡术

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% to 4.00% [1] - There is a notable division within the Federal Reserve, with some officials advocating for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut while others prefer to maintain current rates [1][2] - The ongoing government shutdown has created a "data vacuum," complicating the Fed's ability to assess economic conditions and make informed decisions [2][6] Group 2 - The Fed confirmed it will end its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) on December 1, which has been ongoing for three years [3] - The balance sheet has shrunk from a peak of $9 trillion to $6.6 trillion, indicating that the Fed has largely achieved its reduction goals [3][5] - Recent liquidity pressures in the U.S. money market have necessitated the cessation of balance sheet reduction to prevent a repeat of past liquidity crises [4][5] Group 3 - Powell's comments during the press conference indicated that future rate cuts are not guaranteed, emphasizing the need for flexibility in policy decisions [6] - The uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook, particularly regarding employment and inflation, adds complexity to the Fed's future rate decisions [6][7] - The potential change in leadership at the Fed, with several candidates being considered for the chair position, could significantly impact future monetary policy and its independence [7]