SW Misses Q3 Earnings Estimates, Lowers FY25 EBITDA View

Core Insights - Smurfit Westrock Plc (SW) reported earnings of 58 cents per share in Q3 2025, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 68 cents by 14.7% [1][11] - The company's net sales for Q3 2025 were $8 billion, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $7.98 billion, and up from $7.67 billion in the year-ago quarter [3][11] - The adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $1.3 billion, slightly up from $1.26 billion in the previous year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 16.3% compared to 16.5% a year ago [5][11] Financial Performance - The cost of sales in Q3 2025 was $6.43 billion, a 1.8% increase year over year, while gross profit rose 16% to $1.57 billion, resulting in a gross margin of 19.6%, up from 17.6% in the prior year [4] - Selling, general and administrative expenses decreased by 4.7% year over year to $960 million, and operating profit significantly improved to $526 million from $55 million in the year-ago quarter [4][11] - The company announced a quarterly dividend of 43.08 cents per share, payable on December 18, 2025 [9] Segment Performance - The Europe, MEA & APAC segment reported sales of $2.82 billion, a 6.5% increase year over year, with adjusted EBITDA rising 2% to $419 million [6] - The North America segment's sales were $4.6 billion, a 2% increase from the previous year, with adjusted EBITDA rising 4% to $810 million [7] - The LATAM segment achieved sales of $545 million, up 10% year over year, with adjusted EBITDA remaining stable at $116 million [8] Outlook - Smurfit Westrock has lowered its FY25 adjusted EBITDA outlook to $4.9-$5.1 billion, down from the previous estimate of $5-$5.2 billion, due to planned downtime in Q4 [12][11] - The company reported an adjusted EBITDA of $4.7 billion for 2024 [12] Stock Performance - Smurfit Westrock's shares have declined by 26.5% over the past year, compared to a 16.7% decline in the industry [13]