【发展之道】 主流经济学产业结构论调局限在哪

Core Argument - The mainstream economic view that prioritizes service industries, particularly productive services, as the leading sector for a country's industrial structure is outdated. Instead, a strong manufacturing sector, especially high-end manufacturing, is essential for national strength and economic leadership [1][2][3]. Group 1: Historical Context - Historically, no country has become a global superpower solely through service industries; all major powers have relied on manufacturing. The rise of the Netherlands in the 17th century was closely tied to its manufacturing and commercial activities [3]. - The decline of the Netherlands in the 18th century was attributed to an overemphasis on commerce and finance at the expense of manufacturing, which allowed Britain to surpass it [3]. - The United States, despite its strong service sector, became a manufacturing powerhouse in the 19th century, with significant milestones such as surpassing the UK in manufacturing output in 1894 [3]. Group 2: Current Trends and Implications - The global economic landscape is shifting, with developed countries like the U.S. focusing on revitalizing their manufacturing sectors as a strategic priority. This includes a competitive focus on high-end and advanced manufacturing [2][5]. - The experience of Hong Kong illustrates that a strong service sector alone is insufficient for sustainable development without a robust manufacturing base [4]. - National security is closely linked to manufacturing capabilities. Countries lacking strong manufacturing sectors risk vulnerability, as seen in historical contexts where nations without industrial strength faced external threats [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The emphasis on developing a manufacturing-centric industrial system is not only significant for long-term growth but also urgent for countries like China, as global competition intensifies [5].