Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in copper prices is driven by a combination of macroeconomic factors, supply disruptions, and increasing demand, with both domestic and international copper prices reaching historical highs [1][2][3]. Price Trends - On October 29, London copper futures peaked at $11,120 per ton, marking a nearly 5% increase from the low of $10,591.5 per ton on October 20. On October 30, Shanghai copper futures reached a high of 89,270 yuan per ton, also a historical high, up over 5% from the low of 84,410 yuan per ton on October 20 [1][2]. Supply Disruptions - The copper market is experiencing supply tightness due to frequent accidents in global copper mines, particularly in Indonesia, leading to a downward revision of expected copper production increases [2][3]. The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia is expected to reduce output, resulting in a projected increase of only 320,000 tons in copper concentrate production for 2025, significantly lower than consumption growth [3]. Demand Dynamics - The demand for copper is being driven by new applications, particularly in AI data centers, which are expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of approximately 22% from 2023 to 2030. The copper intensity of these facilities is significantly higher than traditional ones, potentially leading to substantial increases in copper demand [4][6]. Market Sentiment - The market sentiment has been bolstered by improved geopolitical conditions, reduced international trade risks, and expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which have collectively enhanced bullish sentiment in the copper market [2][4]. Long-term Outlook - The long-term outlook for copper prices remains positive, with expectations of a continued supply-demand gap due to constrained copper mine supply and robust demand from sectors such as renewable energy and electric vehicles. Analysts predict that copper consumption will maintain an annual growth rate of 800,000 tons in the coming years [5][6].
供需缺口持续扩大机构看好中长期铜价表现
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao·2025-10-30 21:12