专项债发行接近尾声 增量资金有望加速到位

Core Viewpoint - Local government special bonds play a crucial role in stabilizing growth and investment, with over 89% of the annual issuance limit already reached by October 30 this year [1] Group 1: Special Bond Issuance - As of October 30, 2023, the issuance of new local government special bonds reached 39,387.21 billion yuan, exceeding 89% of the annual limit, with an expected total of 39,645.81 billion yuan including planned issuances [1] - The new local government special debt limit for 2025 is set at 4.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 500 billion yuan from the previous year [1] - The top five provinces for new special bond issuance are Guangdong, Shandong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Sichuan, all showing growth compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2: Funding Allocation and Support - This year, special bonds have significantly increased support for real estate and government investment funds, broadening the scope of funding allocation [2] - Special bonds are being used innovatively in regions like Beijing, Shanghai, and Zhejiang to support government investment funds, which can leverage social capital through government injections [2] - The upcoming months are expected to see a "small peak" in special bond issuance, with over 5,000 billion yuan still available for issuance [2] Group 3: Future Planning and Project Preparation - The preparation for 2026 local special bond projects has already begun, with some provinces notifying localities to prepare project reserves [3] - The early issuance of part of the debt replacement quota for next year is anticipated to help local governments free up more funds for development [3][4] - Industry experts suggest that next year's special bonds will further enhance their role in stabilizing growth, promoting development, and mitigating risks, particularly in infrastructure projects [5]