美国政府停摆数周，央行内部分歧严重，美联储被指缺乏关键数据“盲判”降息

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, bringing it to a target range of 3.75% to 4%, marking the fifth rate cut since September 2024 and the second this year [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Decision - The recent rate cut aims to prevent a further rise in unemployment, with the current rate being the lowest in nearly three years [2]. - Market expectations for a third consecutive rate cut in December were adjusted following comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, leading to a decline in stock prices, except for a slight increase in the Nasdaq [2]. - There is a notable division among Fed policymakers regarding the extent of economic stimulus needed, with Powell acknowledging sharp disagreements on future rate paths [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Context and Inflation - The decision comes amid signs of "mild stagflation," characterized by high inflation and weak employment [2]. - Powell indicated that the impact of tariffs on inflation remains uncertain, with the latest consumer price index showing no significant rise in overall inflation despite new tariffs [3]. - Concerns have been raised about the Fed's ability to make informed decisions due to a lack of critical economic data, particularly with the government shutdown affecting data releases [3]. Group 3: Leadership Transition at the Federal Reserve - Attention is focused on the selection of the next Fed Chair, with Treasury Secretary Becerra leading the search, narrowing the list to five candidates [4]. - The current Chair Powell's term ends in May, and an announcement regarding his successor is expected as early as December [5]. - The new Chair will face challenges from the current administration's aggressive economic policies, which are contributing to rising inflation and slowing growth, amidst evident divisions within the Fed [5].