Michael Saylor's Strategy Drops $18B in Value, but a Rebound May Be Near: 10X Research

Core Insights - MicroStrategy has lost nearly $18 billion in market value as enthusiasm for bitcoin has waned and its net asset value (mNAV) premium has collapsed [1] - A report suggests that the stock may be set for a rebound due to potential catalysts, including strong Q3 earnings and speculation about S&P 500 inclusion [2][3] Market Performance - The stock price has fallen below $280, reflecting a 1.8% decline on Wednesday, with the market cap now closely aligned with the value of bitcoin on the company's balance sheet [3] - This represents a significant decline of 40% since July, leading to low retail interest and "washed out" sentiment [3] Earnings Expectations - The firm is expected to report approximately $3.6 billion in profit from mark-to-market gains on its bitcoin holdings [4] - This profit could reignite speculation regarding a potential S&P 500 index inclusion decision in December, with a probability assigned at 60-70% [4] Potential Impact of S&P 500 Inclusion - Inclusion in the S&P 500 could generate up to $28 billion in passive and active fund flows, potentially leading to a rally similar to that experienced by Coinbase and Robinhood after their inclusions [5] - The sentiment of capitulation may mark the beginning of a new phase for the stock [5]