与美联储政策分歧扩大！欧洲央行连续三次维持利率不变

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained its interest rates, signaling that the interest rate cut cycle may be nearing its end, despite ongoing inflation pressures and a strong euro [1][2][4] Group 1: ECB's Monetary Policy - On October 30, the ECB decided to keep the deposit facility rate at 2.00%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40%, marking the third consecutive meeting without changes [1] - ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that the bank is in a "good position" as inflation is close to the target, and previous policies are still effective [1] - The ECB emphasized that while the eurozone economy shows resilience, uncertainties remain due to global trade disputes and geopolitical tensions [1][2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Preliminary data indicated that the eurozone's GDP grew by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, surpassing market expectations, which supports the ECB's decision to maintain interest rates [2] - A survey revealed that a majority of economists expect the ECB to keep the deposit rate unchanged until at least the end of 2026, with 57% of surveyed economists believing rates will remain at current levels [2] Group 3: Euro Strength and Export Concerns - The ECB's decision to hold rates steady contrasts sharply with the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, raising concerns about the euro's strength, which has appreciated approximately 12% this year, potentially impacting export competitiveness [3] - The eurozone's export-dependent economies are under pressure due to U.S. tariffs and the strong euro, although recent business surveys indicate signs of economic recovery [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that if the strong euro continues to exert pressure, the ECB may be compelled to ease policies further, especially in light of ongoing rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4] - The probability of another rate cut by the ECB by the end of 2026 is estimated to be less than 40%, indicating a cautious approach moving forward [4]