国际观察丨美联储货币政策面临多重困扰

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy faces significant uncertainty due to internal divisions, the government shutdown affecting data collection, and ongoing pressures from employment and inflation risks [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to between 3.75% and 4.00% [1]. - This marks the fifth rate cut since September 2024, following a similar reduction on September 17 [1]. - The Fed's statement indicated that employment growth has slowed, the unemployment rate has risen, and inflation remains high [1]. Group 2: Market Expectations - Market expectations for another rate cut in December have dropped significantly from 90% to below 70% [2]. - Analysts interpret the Fed's lack of clear guidance for December as a dampening of rate cut prospects [1]. Group 3: Internal Divisions and Economic Data - There are notable divisions within the Fed regarding future rate decisions, with some members advocating for larger cuts while others prefer to maintain current rates [3]. - The government shutdown has halted critical economic data collection, complicating the Fed's ability to assess the economic situation accurately [3]. Group 4: Employment and Inflation Concerns - The U.S. labor market shows signs of weakness, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% in August, the highest in nearly four years, and non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000, significantly below expectations [3][4]. - Inflation remains a concern, with the personal consumption expenditures price index rising by 2.7% year-over-year in August, exceeding the Fed's long-term target of 2% [4]. - Tariff policies have contributed to inflationary pressures, with projections indicating inflation could rise to 3% by December [4]. Group 5: Relationship with the White House - Tensions persist between the Fed and the White House, with government officials previously pressuring the Fed for more aggressive rate cuts [5]. - The Fed's independence may be at risk as the White House indicates a preference for a successor who supports lower borrowing costs [5].