艾罗能源(688717)：3Q25业绩低于预期 看好工商储前景

Performance Review - Company reported 1-3Q25 performance: revenue of 3.028 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.8%; net profit attributable to shareholders of 150 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.3% [1] - In 3Q25, revenue reached 1.221 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21.1%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 9 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 85.1% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 91.1%, indicating a decline in profitability and performance below expectations [1] Development Trends - Demand for household storage continues to grow, with rapid growth in Australia; since 2Q25, driven by terminal demand, company’s European market shipments have gradually increased quarter-on-quarter [2] - The Australian market introduced high subsidies in July 2025, with excellent economics for household storage (payback period of 5-6 years), leading to expectations of rapid market demand growth; company’s long-term layout in Australia is expected to benefit from high growth demand [2] - Company is focusing on industrial and commercial storage, opening a second growth curve; the European industrial and commercial storage market is expected to accelerate development post-2025 due to enhanced economics from increased subsidies and dynamic pricing [2] - Company launched an industrial and commercial storage system in 2024, offering storage capacities from 100 kWh to 261 kWh; expected industrial and commercial storage revenue in 2025 is projected to reach 700 million yuan, which may become the company’s second growth curve [2] - Gross margin decreased quarter-on-quarter to 30.5%, down 6.0 percentage points, primarily due to increased sales from low-margin regions; net profit margin in 3Q25 was 0.7%, down 8.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to the decline in profitability, company has lowered net profit expectations for 2025 and 2026 by 35% and 32% to 260 million yuan and 440 million yuan, respectively [3] - Current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 43.2 times for 2025 and 25.8 times for 2026; maintaining an outperform rating with a target price of 80.0 yuan, corresponding to 48.5 times 2025 P/E and 29.0 times 2026 P/E, indicating a potential upside of 12.5% from the current stock price [3]