先导智能(300450)：三季度业绩如期兑现 关注周期与新技术共振

Performance Review - The company reported 1-3Q25 revenue of 10.439 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.56%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.186 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 94.97% [1] - In 3Q25, revenue reached 3.828 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.95%, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 446 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 198.92% [1] - The recovery in demand for power batteries and energy storage batteries from leading domestic battery manufacturers has accelerated project deliveries, resulting in a sequential increase in net profit [1] - The domestic lithium battery cycle has been recovering since 2025, while the overseas cycle continues [1] - The gross profit margin for 3Q25 was 30.5%, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4 percentage points, while the net profit margin was 11.7%, a year-on-year increase of 7.2 percentage points [1] Cash Flow - The net cash flow from operating activities for 3Q25 was 1.494 billion yuan, continuing the trend of net cash inflow [2] Development Trends - The domestic energy storage and overseas power battery cycles are expected to continue exceeding expectations [3] - New energy storage plays a crucial role in the development of AI, with 2026 anticipated to be a year of rapid global energy storage growth, leading to higher-than-expected demand for lithium battery equipment capital expenditure [3] - The localization of battery production capacity in markets such as Europe and Southeast Asia is expected to deepen [3] - The company, as a leading provider of lithium battery equipment, is likely to benefit from industry cycle trends [3] - The company is also positioned as a global leader in solid-state battery production lines, which may provide long-term benefits from the implementation of solid-state technology [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains net profit forecasts of 1.77 billion yuan for 2025 and 2.42 billion yuan for 2026, with current stock prices corresponding to PE ratios of 52.6x and 38.4x respectively [4] - Given the upward adjustment in the valuation center for the solid-state battery sector, the company has raised its target price by 11.1% to 70 yuan, corresponding to a 2026 PE of 45x, indicating an upside potential of 18.0% [4]