铜价屡创新高，新经济领域为铜带来新增长逻辑

Core Insights - Recent copper price increases are attributed to constrained supply, a synergy of new and traditional demand, and a loose monetary environment [1] - New economic sectors such as renewable energy and AI are driving significant copper demand, transforming its asset characteristics from a traditional industrial metal to a core material for new infrastructure, thus opening long-term growth opportunities [1][2] Supply Side Analysis - Global copper supply disruptions have become normalized, with significant incidents affecting major copper mines, leading to a projected 35% decrease in output from a major Indonesian mine by 2026 and potential delays in production from a Chilean mine due to safety checks [1] - The expected new copper production capacity of only 500,000 tons by 2025 is insufficient to meet the anticipated demand increase of 800,000 tons, resulting in an expanding supply-demand gap [1] Demand Side Analysis - The growth in copper demand is now driven by new economic sectors, reducing reliance on traditional industries like real estate and home appliances, which are more susceptible to economic cycles [2] - Key demand drivers include: - Electric vehicles (EVs), with each vehicle requiring 80-100 kg of copper, four times that of traditional fuel vehicles, and a projected global EV sales increase to over 30 million units by 2025, adding approximately 250,000 tons of copper demand [2] - AI computing centers, where each server rack consumes 100-200 kg of copper, with significant demand growth expected as countries invest in AI infrastructure [2] - Power grid investments in China exceeding 500 billion yuan annually during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with over 40% of copper demand coming from power grid applications [2] Financial Attributes - Copper's status as a dollar-denominated commodity and the potential for lower interest rates to stimulate financing across the supply chain are expected to further boost overall demand [3] - Investment opportunities exist through index-based tools, particularly mining ETFs that focus on upstream mining sectors, covering copper, gold, and rare earths, with notable elasticity and potential for excess returns [3] - Long-term growth in emerging industries and a tight supply-demand balance are expected to support the sector's prosperity, with opportunities for strategic accumulation during short-term adjustments [3]