降息+政策双重加持，有色板块前景向好

Core Viewpoint - The current interest rate cut cycle in the U.S. is expected to weaken the dollar, which will positively impact the prices of non-ferrous metals through various mechanisms, including direct pricing effects, cost of holding impacts, and asset substitution effects [1][2][3] Group 1: Impact of Interest Rate Cuts on Non-Ferrous Metals - The weakening of the dollar during the interest rate cut cycle reduces the cost for non-dollar currency holders to purchase non-ferrous metals, thus benefiting their prices [1] - Lower market interest rates during the cut cycle facilitate financing for both mining and downstream production companies, which can stimulate demand for non-ferrous metals [1][2] - The current interest rate cut cycle is accompanied by concerns over the weakening U.S. economy, enhancing the appeal of gold as a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The ongoing interest rate cuts and the existing supply-demand gap in the non-ferrous metals market, exacerbated by mining difficulties and reduced capital expenditures, are expected to support prices [2][4] - Traditional demand for non-ferrous metals is under pressure, but new industries are anticipated to create new demand opportunities, maintaining a tight balance in supply and demand [2][4] Group 3: Policy Implications - The "Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan" focuses on optimizing supply and upgrading demand, aiming to enhance global competitiveness and resource utilization [3][4] - The plan emphasizes precise control across the entire industry chain and aims to shift the industry from quantity expansion to quality improvement, which is expected to enhance profitability [3][4] - Policies are set to guide the non-ferrous metals sector towards new emerging industries such as renewable energy and high-end manufacturing, potentially unlocking long-term growth [3][4] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The current environment is seen as favorable for investing in non-ferrous metals, with potential for further interest rate cuts and a supportive monetary environment [2][4] - Investors are encouraged to consider index-based investment tools like mining ETFs for broad exposure or focus on specific assets like gold ETFs for targeted investment [4]