长安期货屈亚娟：基本面偏强持续发力，铜价高位波动加剧

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have surged rapidly post-October, driven by macroeconomic factors and tightening supply in mining and smelting, with the Shanghai copper index breaking 89,000 yuan/ton and London copper reaching a high of $11,200/ton [1] Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points in October, bringing the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the second rate cut of the year, with a potential end to balance sheet reduction starting December 1 [2] - The dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields have risen, putting pressure on copper prices, while recent discussions between China and the U.S. leaders have positively impacted market sentiment [2] Supply Side Dynamics - The mining sector remains tight, with Freeport-McMoRan's Q3 copper production dropping to 912 million pounds and Glencore's copper output down 17% year-on-year to 583,500 tons [3] - Indonesia has issued a copper concentrate export quota of approximately 400,000 tons to Amman Mineral, which may alleviate some supply constraints [3] - Global copper mine production in August was 1.937 million tons, showing a slight decrease from July, with a year-on-year increase of only 2.2% [3] Refining and Production Trends - Global refined copper production in August was 2.451 million tons, remaining stable from July, with a cumulative increase of 4.1% year-on-year for the first eight months [5] - China's refined copper production in September was 1.266 million tons, a decrease from the previous month but a 10.1% increase year-on-year [6] - Domestic smelting plants are facing reduced production due to low processing fees, which may lead to a gradual decline in refined copper output [6] Inventory Levels - Domestic copper inventory is at a relatively balanced level, with SMM electrolytic copper social inventory at 182,600 tons as of October 30, showing no significant depletion [8] - LME copper inventory has slightly decreased to 135,000 tons, while COMEX copper inventory has risen to 347,000 tons [8] Demand Dynamics - Post-holiday, the rapid rise in copper prices has suppressed downstream demand, with SMM refined copper rod enterprises' operating rate dropping to 61.55% [10] - Overall consumption remains subdued, with significant sectors like cables and enameled wire primarily engaging in just-in-time purchasing [10] - Investment growth in the power grid has slowed to 9.9%, and real estate data continues to show weakness, impacting overall demand [10][11] Summary - Overall, while macroeconomic conditions do not present significant downside risks, the high copper prices have led to increased caution among investors, with potential profit-taking and adjustments in precious metals impacting copper prices [12] - The supply side remains fragile, with expectations for reduced supply in the coming years, while low processing fees are affecting domestic refined copper production [12] - The price increase is also suppressing demand, which is a key concern for the market [12]