流动性担忧加剧，交易员大举押注联邦基金利差

Core Insights - The market is increasingly concerned about liquidity, leading traders to record levels of activity in a specific segment of the U.S. interest rate futures market, betting on potential changes in overnight loan rate spreads if the Federal Reserve takes action to alleviate financing pressures [1][2] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group reported that the trading volume of futures related to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) and the federal funds rate reached historical peaks, with over 400,000 contracts traded for the one-month SOFR-federal funds basis [1] - The current SOFR is 4.27%, while the effective federal funds rate is 4.12%, indicating a spread of 15 basis points [1] Group 1 - Recent market pressure signals have led some Wall Street strategists to believe that the Federal Reserve will take action to improve market liquidity, although no measures were announced by Chairman Jerome Powell [2] - The lack of direct action from the Federal Reserve regarding repo rates initially caused disappointment in the market, resulting in a new wave of activity in SOFR-federal funds basis trading, particularly for November contracts [2] - Traders are repositioning in anticipation of a potential policy shift from the Federal Reserve, while also aiming to mitigate risks amid ongoing financing pressures [2] Group 2 - The liquidity pressures are expected to persist into November, driven by the continued reduction of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and the U.S. Treasury's issuance of more short-term debt, which will absorb significant cash from the market [2]