水费引爆东京通胀“炸弹” 日本央行加息获支撑 日元应声走高

Core Insights - Tokyo's inflation rate is accelerating, providing a basis for the Bank of Japan to continue gradual interest rate hikes and pushing the yen higher [1][2] - The core consumer price index (CPI) in Tokyo rose by 2.8% year-on-year in October, driven mainly by an increase in water fees, surpassing economists' median forecast of 2.6% [1][2] - The nationwide price increase in Japan has remained above the Bank of Japan's 2% target for three and a half years, but the central bank's governor believes there is still a gap to reach this target [1] Inflation and Economic Measures - The core inflation rate excluding fresh food and energy rose from 2.5% in September to 2.8% in October, with the overall inflation rate also recording a 2.8% increase [1] - Following the data release, the yen appreciated against the dollar, rising to 153.82 from approximately 154.17 [2] - Prime Minister Sanna Takashi plans to implement new economic measures to alleviate the impact of rising prices on consumers and businesses, including lowering gasoline taxes and providing additional subsidies to local governments [2] Industrial and Retail Performance - Japan's industrial output increased by 2.2% month-on-month in September, exceeding the consensus forecast of 1.5%, and grew by 3.4% year-on-year [3] - Retail sales in September grew by 0.3% month-on-month and 0.5% year-on-year, which is significantly lower than the inflation rate and below expectations [4] - The unemployment rate in Japan remained stable at 2.6%, with a job vacancy-to-applicant ratio of 1.20, indicating 120 job openings for every 100 job seekers [4] Monetary Policy Context - The Bank of Japan decided to maintain its benchmark interest rate, with market observers delaying expectations for the next rate hike, with about half of respondents believing December is the most likely time for the next increase [4] - Unlike the U.S., the Bank of Japan does not face significant public pressure regarding its policies, even with inflation exceeding targets [4]