2025年10月钢铁PMI显示：钢铁行业有所恢复 供需两端回稳运行

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is showing signs of recovery in October 2025, with the PMI rising to 49.2%, ending a two-month decline, although challenges such as high raw material prices and inventory pressures remain [1][2]. Demand Recovery - October saw a recovery in steel demand due to the resumption of outdoor construction post-holidays and a lack of adverse weather in northern regions, but the real estate sector remains in deep adjustment, limiting overall market demand [2][3]. - The new orders index increased to 47.6%, up 2.4 percentage points, indicating some improvement in demand, but still within a contraction zone [3]. - Export orders showed significant improvement, with the new export orders index rising to 54.3%, the highest in nearly 20 months, driven by price differentials and overseas demand [3]. Production Trends - Steel production stabilized in October, with the production index rising to 49.8%, up 4.1 percentage points, indicating a recovery in production activities [5]. - Despite improvements in both supply and demand, the recovery in demand is weaker than the increase in supply, leading to continued inventory pressures for steel mills [5]. Raw Material Prices - Raw material prices remain high, with the purchasing price index exceeding 70%, indicating increased cost pressures for steel manufacturers [8]. - Prices for different raw materials are showing divergence, with iron ore prices stabilizing, scrap steel prices declining, and coke prices rising due to supply constraints [8]. Price and Profitability - Steel prices have shown a downward trend, with the Shanghai rebar price index dropping from 3176 CNY/ton to 3122 CNY/ton during October, leading to further compression of profit margins for steel mills [11]. - The overall cost pressure on steel manufacturers has increased compared to September, despite some recovery in demand [11]. Future Outlook - In November, steel demand is expected to show a "first rise then fall" trend, supported by construction activities and export resilience, but constrained by ongoing weakness in the real estate sector and seasonal factors [12]. - Steel production is anticipated to contract due to environmental restrictions in northern regions and a shift from peak to off-peak demand [15].