KEDE Numerical (SH:688305) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-10-31 02:37Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in net profit and revenue for Q3 2025, primarily due to decreased sales and increased share-based payment expenses, but continues to focus on high-end product launches and expanding into civil applications in the aerospace industry, maintaining a "buy" rating [1][4]. Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 400 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.01%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 64 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.53% [1]. - In Q3 2025, revenue was 106 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 15.97% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 35.32%. Net profit for Q3 was 15 million yuan, down 37.56% year-on-year and 46.80% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was 38.71%, a decrease of 3.97 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin was 15.90%, down 3.01 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Cost and Expense Analysis - The company's expense ratio for Q1-Q3 2025 was 22.79%, an increase of 2.09 percentage points year-on-year. The breakdown includes sales expense ratio at 8.61%, management expense ratio at 6.88%, R&D expense ratio at 7.53%, and financial expense ratio at -0.24% [2]. - The increase in management expenses was attributed to rising operating income and corresponding cost increases, while R&D expenses rose due to increased investment and personnel [2]. Product and Market Strategy - The company has established a complete product layout, forming a competitive advantage with a fully controllable supply chain, with applications across various sectors including aerospace, energy, automotive, and medical [3]. - Recent innovations include high-value products such as high-speed blade tip grinding centers and five-axis horizontal machining centers, contributing to new revenue growth [3]. - The company is expanding into emerging fields like low-altitude economy and humanoid robotics, providing high-precision manufacturing equipment for components in drones and helicopters [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has revised down its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 by 5.82%, 10.38%, and 7.64%, respectively, projecting net profits of 163 million, 210 million, and 268 million yuan, with a three-year compound growth rate of 27.25% [4]. - The estimated EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 1.22, 1.58, and 2.01 yuan, respectively, with a target price of 81.74 yuan based on a PE ratio of 67 times for 2025 [4].